Determining preferred forest management plans under ecosystem driver uncertainty: A conceptual framework

Forest managers desiring to maintain the long–term sustainability of forests face the important and challenging task of developing forest management plans that account for uncertainty about future changes in ecosystem drivers (i.e., driver uncertainty). The conceptual framework proposed here is important because forest managers can use it to achieve this task. The framework has seven analytical components: (1) selecting ecosystem services and management objectives; (2) choosing management plans; (3) specifying ecosystem drivers and scenarios for future changes in drivers; (4) evaluating management objectives achieved by management plans; (5) identifying the weak or strong sustainability of management plans; (6) using a fuzzy decision–making technique to determine preferred sustainable management plans for driver scenarios; and (7) using the minimax regret criterion to identify preferred sustainable management plans across planning periods. Noteworthy contributions of the framework are that it: (1) incorporates multiple management plans, ecosystem drivers, management objectives, and planning periods; (2) accounts for uncertainty about future changes in ecosystem drivers; (3) characterizes and evaluates management plans in terms of multiple objectives; (4) accommodates single– or multi–valued objectives; and (5) handles quantitative and qualitative management objectives. Implementation of certain analytical components of the framework, particularly quantitative or qualitative evaluation of the effects of forest ecosystem drivers on the objectives achieved by management plans, would most likely require assistance from professionals with expertise in that area. Keywords - Sustainable forest management planning, uncertainty, multiple ecosystem driver

Targeting Conservation Easements to Reduce Impacts of Private Land Development on Protected Areas

ECONOMIC GROWTH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT THE ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY of protected areas. Changes in ecological processes and natural resources stemming from economic growth include alterations in the availability of energy, water, and nutrients; lower soil and water quality; greater incidence of exotic species; reduced biodiversity; increased exploitation o

Costs and benefits of wetland restoration of hydric cropland in Missouri: a preliminary assessment

This report presents a preliminary analysis of the benefits and costs of restoring hydric cropland sites to wetlands in Missouri. Potential social and private (landowner) benefits and costs were estimated for 25 sites in Livingston county and 23 sites in Linn county. Sites ranging in size from 36 to 68 acres were identified using a geographic information system. Social net benefits of wetland restoration for both counties were highest and positive ($431,248) with high benefits and low costs and negative and lowest (-$579,681) with low benefits and high costs. When wetland construction costs are fully subsidized and easement payments equal the opportunity cost of wetland restoration, private net benefits ranged from $629,905 (high landowner benefits) to$9,686 (low landowner benefits). It would be economically rational for a landowner to convert hydric cropland to wetland if the easement payment provided by the government is greater than or equal to the opportunity cost of wetland restoration, the cost of wetland construction is fully subsidized, and the income earned from the wetland equals or exceeds maintenance cost of the wetland. The first condition is likely to be satisfied for landowners who bid eligible cropland into the Wetland Reserve Program. The second condition would be satisfied under current cost-sharing provisions for wetlands. The third condition may or may not be satisfied.Project # G-2029-04 Agreement # 14-08-0001-G-2029-0

An Integrated Conceptual Framework for Adapting Forest Management Practices to Alternative Futures

This paper proposes an integrated, conceptual framework that forest managers can use to simulate the multiple objectives/indicators of sustainability for different spatial patterns of forest management practices under alternative futures, rank feasible (affordable) treatment patterns for forested areas, and determine if and when it is advantageous to adapt or change the spatial pattern over time for each alternative future. The latter is defined in terms of three drivers: economic growth; land use policy; and climate change. Four forest management objectives are used to demonstrate the framework, minimizing wildfire risk and water pollution and maximizing expected net return from timber sales and the extent of potential wildlife habitat. The fuzzy technique for preference by similarity to the ideal solution is used to rank the feasible spatial patterns for each subperiod in a planning horizon and alternative future. The resulting rankings for subperiods are used in a passive adaptive management procedure to determine if and when it is advantageous to adapt the spatial pattern over subperiods. One of the objectives proposed for the conceptual framework is simulated for the period 2010–2059, namely, wildfire risk, as measured by expected residential losses from wildfire in the wildland-urban interface for Flathead County, Montana

Managing land application rates of to optimize economic value and water quality

Annual broiler processing capacity in southwestern Missouri is expected to increase from 127 million birds in 1989 to 245 million birds in 1995, or 93 percent. Much of this growth is expected to occur in Barry county where an additional 42,400 acres, almost double current land requirements, will be needed for land disposal of broiler litter. Rapid expansion in broiler production in southwestern Missouri can increase the risk of surface and ground water contamination from land application of broiler litter because the area has karst topography and large openings in the aquifer. Contamination of water in this region could have adverse economic and health impacts because water-based recreation is a significant sector of the regional economy and groundwater is the major source of drinking water. This study: determines the amount and composition of litter removed from seven broiler houses; develops a geographic information system for determining how spatial variability in land use, soil types and hydrogeologic features, and limits on the locations and application of broiler litter to protect water quality affect the amount of litter applied and the number of broilers grown in the watershed; and develops an economic optimization model that determines the locations and rates of litter application on areas of the watershed that maximize the economic value of applied litter while protecting water quality. The study area is the Shoal Creek watershed located in Barry County.Project # G-1572-04 Agreement # 14-08-0001-G-157

Evaluation of the economic costs and benefits of methods for reducing nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico: Topic 6 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

In this report we analyze the Topic 5 report’s recommendations for reducing nitrogen losses to the Gulf of Mexico (Mitsch et al. 1999). We indicate the relative costs and cost-effectiveness of different control measures, and potential benefits within the Mississippi River Basin. For major nonpoint sources, such as agriculture, we examine both national and basin costs and benefits. Based on the Topic 2 economic analysis (Diaz and Solow 1999), the direct measurable dollar benefits to Gulf fisheries of reducing nitrogen loads from the Mississippi River Basin are very limited at best. Although restoring the ecological communities in the Gulf may be significant over the long term, we do not currently have information available to estimate the benefits of such measures to restore the Gulf’s long-term health. For these reasons, we assume that measures to reduce nitrogen losses to the Gulf will ultimately prove beneficial, and we concentrate on analyzing the cost-effectiveness of alternative reduction strategies. We recognize that important public decisions are seldom made on the basis of strict benefit–cost analysis, especially when complete benefits cannot be estimated. We look at different approaches and different levels of these approaches to identify those that are cost-effective and those that have limited undesirable secondary effects, such as reduced exports, which may result in lost market share. We concentrate on the measures highlighted in the Topic 5 report, and also are guided by the source identification information in the Topic 3 report (Goolsby et al. 1999). Nonpoint sources that are responsible for the bulk of the nitrogen receive most of our attention. We consider restrictions on nitrogen fertilizer levels, and restoration of wetlands and riparian buffers for denitrification. We also examine giving more emphasis to nitrogen control in regions contributing a greater share of the nitrogen load

Economic Feasibility Of Conservation Tillage In The Palouse With Stochastic Erosion Rates And Yields

This paper examines the extent to which variability in erosion rates and crop yields affect the economic feasibility of, and farmers' willingness to adopt minimum and no tillage for a winter wheat-spring pea rotation in the Palouse region of northern Idaho

Competitive Bidding For Conservation Assistance

Federal conservation programs provide technical and financial assistance to farmers who install eligible soil and water conservation practices

Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Sustainability of Forest Fuel Reduction Treatments and Their Adaptation to Climate Change

Applying fuel reduction treatments (FRTs) to forested landscapes can alleviate undesirable changes in wildfire benefits and costs due to climate change. A conceptual framework was developed for determining the preferred FRTs across planning periods, adapting FRTs to future climate change, assessing the sustainability of adaptive responses to climate change, and evaluating the validity of the two premises motivating this issue of Sustainability. The conceptual framework: (1) accounts for uncertainty about future climate change and its effects on management objectives for FRTs; (2) employs biophysical simulation and mental models to estimate the management objectives for FRTs; (3) uses fuzzy TOPSIS to determine the preferred FRTs for climate futures; (4) employs the minimax regret criterion to identify the preferred FRT for each planning period; (5) determines the best strategy for adapting FRTs to future climate change; and (6) assesses landscape sustainability when using the preferred FRTs. The framework is demonstrated with constructed examples for adapting FRTs to climate change for privately- and publicly-owned forested landscapes. Based on the conceptual framework, current knowledge does not allow determining with certainty whether managers’ adaptations of FRTs to future climate change are sustainable or unsustainable due to type I and II decision errors